[AfricaRealities.com] Rwanda: Kigali needs to urgently protect cash reserves

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Kigali needs to urgently protect cash reserves

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Workers in Kigali off-load goods imported from other East African countries. The International Monetary Fund estimates Rwanda's current level of reserves cover at 3.5-4 months of imports. PHOTO | CYRIL NDEGEYA

By BERNA NAMATA

Posted Saturday, February 6 2016 at 18:45

IN SUMMARY

While definite figures of the current state of reserves are not readily available, the International Monetary Fund estimates the current level of reserves cover at 3.5-4 months of imports — the number of months of imports its reserves can pay for.
A combination of lower commodity prices for its major exports especially minerals, a depreciating currency due to the strengthening of the US dollar, coupled with a persistently high import bill that outpaces revenues generated from exports has drastically impacted the country's international reserves.

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Rwanda needs to take new measures to restore and preserve its international cash reserves, which have come under intense pressure in recent months, increasing the country's exposure to financial turbulence.

While definite figures of the current state of reserves are not readily available, the International Monetary Fund estimates the current level of reserves cover at 3.5-4 months of imports — the number of months of imports its reserves can pay for.

Although the reserves are still above the IMF's critical threshold of three months of import cover, there is concern that if the country's import bill continues to rise faster than export receipts, this will add pressure on the country's reserves.

"The trend has been downward for the past few years, partly related to the decline in foreign aid," said Thomas Alun, the IMF resident representative to Rwanda. "Our preference is for the central bank not to lower the import cover below this. On the other hand, to maintain a comfortable growth rate and help grease the economy, there is still some room for foreign exchange sales from the central bank."

A combination of lower commodity prices for its major exports especially minerals, a depreciating currency due to the strengthening of the US dollar, coupled with a persistently high import bill that outpaces revenues generated from exports has drastically impacted the country's international reserves.

In the first half of 2015, exports decreased by 6.2 per cent in value to $275.28 million, compared with $293.61 million in the first half of 2014, mainly due to the poor performance recorded by the mining sector, which shrank by 31.3 per cent.

READ: Fall in global prices hurts Rwanda's mining industry

Yet in the first 11 months of 2015, formal imports decreased by only 2.6 per cent in value $2,144.14 million from $2,202.02 million after an increase of 8.1 per cent in the same period of 2014.

"Looking ahead, the prospects for reserves are not very promising and there is a need for some exchange rate adjustment," said Mr Alun H. "The government also has to help to rein in some import demand through expenditure restraint since the public sector is a big part of the economy and demands a lot of imports."

The rationale for policy adjustment, he argued, is to facilitate a "smooth landing."

"This outcome is preferred over a situation in which the government and central bank suddenly realise that the forex coffers are at critical levels and the economy has to adjust abruptly to remain afloat," he said.

By mid January, the Rwanda franc had depreciated 7.2 per cent against the US dollar, trading at Rwf746.50 per dollar from Rwf694.37 at the end December 2014.

Rwanda's growth in 2015 was slightly stronger than expected, ranging from 6.5-7 per cent and inflation remained contained and far below the regional average of 4.5 per cent as at December.

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Why has the UN ignored its own report about the massacres of Hutu refugees in DRC ?

The UN has ignored its own reports, NGOs and media reports about the massacres of hundreds of thousands of Hutu in DRC Congo (estimated to be more than 400,000) by Kagame when he attacked Hutu refugee camps in Eastern DRC in 1996. This barbaric killings and human rights violations were perpetrated by Kagame’s RPF with the approval of UK and USA and with sympathetic understanding and knowledge of UNHCR and international NGOs which were operating in the refugees camps. According to the UN, NGO and media reports between 1993 and 2003 women and girls were raped. Men slaughtered. Refugees killed with machetes and sticks. The attacks of refugees also prevented humanitarian organisations to help many other refugees and were forced to die from cholera and other diseases. Other refugees who tried to return to Rwanda where killed on their way by RFI and did not reach their homes. No media, no UNHCR, no NGO were there to witness these massacres. When Kagame plans to kill, he makes sure no NGO and no media are prevent. Kagame always kills at night.

The principal key root causes that lead to the Rwandan genocide of 1994 that affected all Rwandan ethnic groups were:

1)The majority Hutu community’s fear of the return of the discriminatory monarchy system that was practiced by the minority Tutsi community against the enslaved majority Hutu community for about 500 years

2)The Hutu community’s fear of Kagame’s guerrilla that committed massacres in the North of the country and other parts of the countries including assassinations of Rwandan politicians.

3) The Rwandan people felt abandoned by the international community ( who was believed to support Kagame’s guerrilla) and then decided to defend themselves with whatever means they had against the advance of Kagame’ guerrilla supported by Ugandan, Tanzanian and Ethiopian armies and other Western powers.

SUMMARY : THE TRAGIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE BRITISH BUDGET SUPPORT AND GEO-STRATEGIC AMBITIONS

United Kingdom's Proxy Wars in Africa: The Case of Rwanda and DR Congo:

The Rwandan genocide and 6,000,000 Congolese and Hutu refugees killed are the culminating point of a long UK’s battle to expand their influence to the African Great Lakes Region. UK supported Kagame’s guerrilla war by providing military support and money. The UK refused to intervene in Rwanda during the genocide to allow Kagame to take power by military means that triggered the genocide. Kagame’s fighters and their families were on the Ugandan payroll paid by UK budget support.

· 4 Heads of State assassinated in the francophone African Great Lakes Region.
· 2,000,000 people died in Hutu and Tutsi genocides in Rwanda, Burundi and RD.Congo.
· 600,000 Hutu refugees killed in R.D.Congo, Uganda, Central African Republic and Rep of Congo.
· 6,000,000 Congolese dead.
· 8,000,000 internal displaced people in Rwanda, Burundi and DR. Congo.
· 500,000 permanent Rwandan and Burundian Hutu refugees, and Congolese refugees around the world.
· English language expansion to Rwanda to replace the French language.
· 20,000 Kagame’s fighters paid salaries from the British Budget Support from 1986 to present.
· £500,000 of British taxpayer’s money paid, so far, to Kagame and his cronies through the budget support, SWAPs, Tutsi-dominated parliament, consultancy, British and Tutsi-owned NGOs.
· Kagame has paid back the British aid received to invade Rwanda and to strengthen his political power by joining the East African Community together with Burundi, joining the Commonwealth, imposing the English Language to Rwandans to replace the French language; helping the British to establish businesses and to access to jobs in Rwanda, and to exploit minerals in D.R.Congo.

Thousands of Hutu murdered by Kagame inside Rwanda, e.g. Kibeho massacres

25,000 Hutu bodies floated down River Akagera into Lake Victoria in Uganda.

The British irrational, extremist, partisan,biased, one-sided media and politicians have disregarded Kagame war crimes e.g. the Kibeho camp massacres, massacres of innocents Hutu refugees in DR. Congo. The British media have been supporting Kagame since he invaded Rwanda by organising the propaganda against the French over the Rwandan genocide, suppressing the truth about the genocide and promoting the impunity of Kagame and his cronies in the African Great Lakes Region. For the British, Rwanda does not need democracy, Rwanda is the African Israel; and Kagame and his guerilla fighters are heroes.The extremist British news reporters including Fergal Keane, Chris Simpson, Chris McGreal, Mark Doyle, etc. continue to hate the Hutus communities and to polarise the Rwandan society.

Kagame political ambitions triggered the genocide.

Kagame’s guerrilla war was aimed at accessing to power at any cost. He rejected all attempts and advice that could stop his military adventures including the cease-fire, political negotiations and cohabitation, and UN peacekeeping interventions. He ignored all warnings that could have helped him to manage the war without tragic consequences. Either you supported Kagame’ s wars and you are now his friend, or you were against his wars and you are his enemy. Therefore, Kagame as the Rwandan strong man now, you have to apologise to him for having been against his war and condemned his war crimes, or accept to be labelled as having been involved in the genocide. All key Kagame’s fighters who committed war crimes and crimes against humanity are the ones who hold key positions in Rwandan army and government for the last 15 years. They continue to be supported and advised by the British including Tony Blair, Andrew Mitchell MP, and the British army senior officials.

Aid that kills: The British Budget Support financed Museveni and Kagame’s wars in Rwanda and DRC.

Genocide propaganda and fabrications are used by the so-called British scholars, news reporters and investigative journalists to promote their CVs and to get income out of the genocide through the selling of their books, providing testimonies against the French, access to consultancy contracts from the UN and Kagame, and participation in conferences and lectures in Rwanda, UK and internationally about genocide. Genocide propaganda has become a lucrative business for Kagame and the British. Anyone who condemned or did not support Kagame’s war is now in jail in Rwanda under the gacaca courts system suuported by British tax payer's money, or his/she is on arrest warrant if he/she managed to flee the Kagame’s regime. Others have fled the country and are still fleeing now. Many others Rwandans are being persecuted in their own country. Kagame is waiting indefinitely for the apologies from other players who warn him or who wanted to help to ensure that political negotiations take place between Kagame and the former government he was fighting against. Britain continues to supply foreign aid to Kagame and his cronies with media reports highlighting economic successes of Rwanda. Such reports are flawed and are aimed at misleading the British public to justify the use of British taxpayers’ money. Kagame and his cronies continue to milk British taxpayers’ money under the British budget support. This started from 1986 through the British budget support to Uganda until now.

Dictator Kagame: No remorse for his unwise actions and ambitions that led to the Rwandan genocide.

No apologies yet to the Rwandan people. The assassination of President Juvenal Habyarimana by Kagame was the only gateway for Kagame to access power in Rwanda. The British media, politicians, and the so-called British scholars took the role of obstructing the search for the truth and justice; and of denying this assassination on behalf of General Kagame. General Paul Kagame has been obliging the whole world to apologise for his mistakes and war crimes. The UK’s way to apologise has been pumping massive aid into Rwanda's crony government and parliement; and supporting Kagame though media campaigns.

This blog reports the crimes that remain unpunished and the impunity that has generated a continuous cycle of massacres in many parts of Africa. In many cases, the perpetrators of the crimes seem to have acted in the knowledge that they would not be held to account for their actions.

The need to fight this impunity has become even clearer with the massacres and genocide in many parts of Africa and beyond.

The blog also addresses issues such as Rwanda War Crimes, Rwandan Refugee massacres in Dr Congo, genocide, African leaders’ war crimes and crimes against humanity, Africa war criminals, Africa crimes against humanity, Africa Justice.

-The British relentless and long running battle to become the sole player and gain new grounds of influence in the francophone African Great Lakes Region has led to the expulsion of other traditional players from the region, or strained diplomatic relations between the countries of the region and their traditional friends. These new tensions are even encouraged by the British using a variety of political and economic manoeuvres.

-General Kagame has been echoing the British advice that Rwanda does not need any loan or aid from Rwandan traditional development partners, meaning that British aid is enough to solve all Rwandan problems.

-The British obsession for the English Language expansion has become a tyranny that has led to genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity, dictatorial regimes, human rights violations, mass killings, destruction of families, communities and cultures, permanent refugees and displaced persons in the African Great Lakes region.

- Rwanda, a country that is run by a corrupt clique of minority-tutsi is governed with institutional discrmination, human rights violations, dictatorship, authoritarianism and autocracy, as everybody would expect.

Susan Rice: a cheater, irresponsible and corrupt woman

Susan Rice: a cheater, irresponsible and corrupt woman: US and UN have supported and protecting the Rwandan dictator and war criminal Paul Kagame who has ordered and supported the death of almost 8 million people both in Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ms. Susan Rice has been at the forefront of trying to shield the Rwandan government, and Mr. Kagame in particular, from international censure, even as several United Nations reports have laid the blame for civilians massacred and genocide of Hutu community in DR Congo. Susan Rice advised Bill Clinton not to intervene in Rwanda to prevent the massacres of civilians by Kagame’s war and to prevent genocide in Rwanda and DR Congo. UK, Uganda and US opted to provide more arms, intelligence, media and diplomatic support to Kagame’s guerrilla war, which contributed to massacres of civilians and genocide of hutu and tutsi in Rwanda and DR Congo.

"British budget support killed our dads, mums, uncles and aunts, our sisters and brothers..."

Guilty of not speaking English: Tears, rapes, bloodshed, terror and horrors as the result of Museveni and Kagame’s liberation for the expansion of the East African Community to create a regional super state, of the British influence and of the English language to francophone countries of the African Great Lakes Region. British’s poor judgement of their geo-strategic ambitions and British endless and chronic rivalries against the French have led to human rights abuses and the killings of millions of innocent people in the Great Lakes Region.

Kagame’s licence to kill Hutu Refugees in DR.Congo

General Nkunda’s wars supported by Kagame through the British Budget support.

Museveni, Kagame and Nkunda ’s wars in D.R. Congo were funded by the British taxpayer’s money through the budget support and by the British private companies that illegally exploit minerals in D.R.Congo. The assassination of President Juvenal Habyarimana by Kagame was the only gateway to access to power in Rwanda, to help Museveni and the British create and Anglophone super state that includes Rwanda, Burundi and D.R.Congo and to continue the fighting for the regime change in DR.Congo that will lead to easier access to minerals in RD Congo and to the implementation of the UK and Museveni’s plans for East African Political Federation.

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· Never be discouraged from being an activist because people tell you that you'll not succeed. You have already succeeded if you're out there representing truth or justice or compassion or fairness or love(Doris Haddock).

· And you will know the truth, and the truth will make you free [John 8:32].

· Tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

· The harder you try to suppress the truth, the more inevitable it is that it will find a way to come out. (Arianna Huffington).

· You cannot kill the truth. You cannot kill justice. You cannot kill what we are fighting for (Jean Dominique).

· Whenever you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth (Arthur Conan Doyle).

· I'm not going to give up. I can't give up. Not as long as the truth is out there( David Duchovny)

· Truth stands, even if there be no public support. It is self-sustained” (Gandhi).

. The least initial deviation from the truth is multiplied later a thousandfold (Aristotle)

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We are proud of our achievements

We are proud of our achievements ! This blog has done a good job so far. For the last 5 years we have been campaigning against war , huma rights violations and sexual violence against women and girls in Democratic Republic of Congo. The outcome of our campaign to the UK and USA is the pressure brought to bear on the dictator President Paul Kagame to end Rwanda's support to M23’s guerrilla war and human rights abuses. It is the UK and USA 's late realisation that British and American people have been supporting a wrong man (Paul Kagame) for the last 20 years. This is how we have achieved our goal. M23 has been politically and militarily defeated and Congolese people are starting to enjoy peace, security and human rights. The Congolese people can now focus on improving their lives through undertaking social and economic activities that will contribute to ending hunger, diseases, ignorance, poverty, illiteracy and malnutrition. But Kagame is unpredictable. He may re-start again to create a new military group in the next few years. We will continue our campaign until all perpetrators of human rights abuses and war crimes in Rwanda, DRC and all East Africa are brought to justice. We are not claiming a Nobel Prize. This is our humble contribution to a fairer and just world.

African Great Lakes Observer

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Kigali needs to urgently protect cash reserves

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